A discussion of recent and past al-Qaeda attacks and strategy to be derived from these operations was recently distributed to a password-protected jihadist forum and titled: ?Al-Qaeda Strategy: Steady Steps - Extraordinary Success?. The author, Saif Allah, references a previous message he composed concerning the end of al-Qaeda?s ?legend ,? as he develops his argument that al-Qaeda operates in phases and they are nearing the defeat of the American presence in the Islamic world. The new phase, then, is to surround the ?Zionist entity? in Palestine and cause its elimination.
Saif Allah presents five of al-Qaeda operations in 2005, including mujahideen fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, hits in Egypt, Jordan and Israel and the promulgation of Salafist jihad in Palestine. The attack on the Abqaiq oil refinery in Saudi Arabia is seen as a movement within al-Qaeda?s current phase to weaken America and its allies, the purpose of which he states is in order to: ?stop the low-priced Saudi oil supply to America. This would break down the industrial power for the American industrial machines, which will be at the same time as a strong hit to America, as Sheikh Usama bin Laden and Sheikh Ayman al-Zawahiri said in their statement.
Al-Qaeda?s strategy is argued to be moving at a steady and strong pace, spreading jihadist ideology as the organization seeks to decentralize its authority. Saif Allah believes that both the men and women of the Islamic world are waking up to the ?truth? and heeding the call to jihad, as they ignore America?s installation of moderate and centrist Muslim regimes in their states. To the future, in the year 2006, he writes: ?2006, will carry happenings that will go beyond all the analyses done by the political analysts and strategy people who are under the American impression.?
A translation of the message is provided to our Intel Service members.