A member of a password-protected jihadist forum recently posted a message in which he seeks to explain why al-Qaeda has not targeting individual members of the Saudi government. He argues that the military establishment within Saudi Arabia is weak, as it does not possess a ?real army,? and is unable to compete when its leadership is lost. Moreover, the author states that the Saudi regime is ?structured on illusions,? that its ego in claiming victories has surpassed reality, and if al-Qaeda should change its strategy, the government will collapse.
In his opinion, al-Qaeda has the capability of executing a new strategy, attacking ?symbolic figures? of the Saudi regime, but it has not yet done so for ?local? tactical and global strategic reasons. According to the author, al-Qaeda perceives that American forces will fill the vacuum left following the collapse of the Saudi government, before al-Qaeda is prepared to face them. Strategically and on the global scale, to effect collapse before the ?knockout blow? against America is not al-Qaeda?s plan. Rather, the author believes al-Qaeda will cause such significant damage on the United States that it will cause the American administration to ?lose its mind? and use nuclear weapons as revenge. In this event, Saudi Arabia will be an ?umbrella? that protects against an American counterattack.
A translatioin of the message is provided to our Intel Service members.